Ondřej Palát: Career Review and Best Wishes

(Pic: tsn.ca)

 This one hurts.

Of course, it always hurts to lose someone you love. Imagine the tears that are going to flow during the video tribute when ten-year Lightning veteran Ondřej Palát returns to Amelie Arena for the first time: I mean, it will be disgusting that he'll be wearing a New Jersey Devils uniform, but I'm not going to be able to hold myself together (although I'll be watching on TV, as a faraway fan repping #DistantThunder).

Yes, the 208th pick in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft, the 2013 Calder Cup Champion and 2014 Calder Trophy Runner-Up, the member of the famed Triplets line with Tyler Johnson and Nikita Kucherov, the two-way conscience, the consistent scorer, the playoff hero, the two-time Stanley Cup Champion, "Sneaky P"... 

Ondřej Palát has left the Lightning.

How? Why?

We've all been over this before. The Lightning are caught between having a host of rising stars in their early-to-mid-twenties (Paul, Sergachev, Cirelli, Černák) that need market-value long-term contracts, having several top-tier NHL superstars on large-dollar deals (Vasilevskiy, Kucherov, Hedman, Stamkos), and trying to ice a balanced team during a period when the salary cap has been flattened for years by low profits due to pandemic shut-downs. 

As a result, Lightning GM Julien BriseBois was forced to set aside any personal attachment he or the organization might feel for Pally, and try to be strictly objective. A pros and cons list to re-signing the winger might look something like...

PROS: Strong two-way forward. Consistent scorer. Clutch playoff performer. Exceptional chemistry with teammates (those no-look passes with Kucherov!!). Great in the room. Cute as a button. Did I forget anything?

CONS: Thirty-one years old, in a league where scoring totals tend to decline as forwards progress beyond their twenties. Frequently injured (he's only played 80+ games once in his career, routinely missing 10-20 games with injury). 

The expectation is that over time, age times injury will equal declining production. The Devils were willing to offer Palát a five year contract at six million dollars per year. That deal will probably be good value for Jersey in the first few years, and maybe not as much in the last few. Regardless, the Lightning don't have the money. Being forced to choose between very good players in their mid-twenties and very good players in their early thirties will always have the same result, no matter how beloved the player's history with the team is, no matter how good his playoff production has been, and no matter how cute he is.

So let's take a moment to remember some good times.

Starting in 2005, Ondřej played for HC Frýdek-Místek, a second-division under-18 team in his Czech home town. He split his junior career between HC Frýdek-Místek and first-division team HC Vítkovice Steel before joining Drummondville of the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League in 2009 as an 18 year old.

In his second season with the Voltigeurs, Palát scored 96 points in 61 games (39g, 57a) and represented the Czech Republic (now Czechia) in the 2011 World Junior Championship in Buffalo and Niagara Falls, New York. The Czechs failed to advance to the medal rounds, but Palát scored 2 goals and added an assist in 6 games. He added 11 points in 10 playoff games with Drummondville, and showed enough in his final year of junior hockey to draw the attention of the Lightning who took him 208th out of the 211 players drafted in 2011.

Palát joined the Norfolk Admirals for the 2011-2012 season and put up 30 points in 61 games in his first year as a pro. Importantly, he was a participant in the Admirals' unbelievable 28-game winning streak. Under Head Coach Jon Cooper, Palát and the Admirals won the Calder Cup as American Hockey League champions.

For the 2012-2013 season, Tampa Bay moved its AHL affiliation to Syracuse, and Palát and his teammates joined the Crunch. He continued to improve and develop, and he scored at nearly a point-per-game pace, including notching his first hat trick as a pro, scoring three goals against Rochester on February 26, 2013. 

A week after that hat trick, Palát was recalled THE SHOW for the first time, joining the struggling Lightning on March 3. He debuted the next night when the Lightning visited the Penguins, recording his first NHL point with an assist on Tom Pyatt's (remember him?) second period goal. The Lightning lost 4-3, however, continuing a downward trend. With the team clunking along, Lightning General Manager Steve Yzerman dismissed Head Coach Guy Boucher and elevated Cooper to the big club. 

When the 2013-2014 season began, Palát started the year on the Lightning and excelled at the NHL level, scoring 21 goals and 59 points in 81 games, good enough to place second in rookie of the year Calder Trophy voting. His Norfolk-to-Tampa Bay teammate Tyler Johnson would place third, with Nathan McKinnon taking the award.

The emergence of Jon Cooper as a top-level coach, the arrival of Palát, Johnson, and fellow rookie Nikita Kucherov, and having established stars Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman enter their primes would be the defining moments of the Lightning's next decade. 

Together the group would swing between the highs of two Conference Finals and four Stanley Cup Finals including brilliant back-to-back championships, the pains of the injury-laden 2016-17 season, and the shock of the 2019 first-round sweep at the hands of the Columbus Blue Jackets after an all-time great regular season. And as a consistent performer, especially in playoff time, Pally has been emblematic of the group. He leaves with a reputation as a clutch playoff warrior, having elevated his Goals-Per-Game average from 0.227 regular season to 0.347 in the playoffs. In the 2020 Stanley Cup run, he set the Lightning team record for goals in the most consecutive games with five.

He leaves the Lightning with his name twice etched on the Stanley Cup. Best wishes in New Jersey to Ondřej Palát.

Predictions for the 2021-2022 Tampa Bay Lightning Season

The first time I made predictions for a Lightning season was in the fall of 1993. The Bolts had just completed their inaugural season, and my group of high school friends, none of whom really cared about sports, got heavily into hockey by playing EA's NHLPA '93 on Mike's SEGA Genesis. That was the last edition of the game to feature fighting, and there were very few players in the game that had a 100 rating for the fighting statistic: Bob Probert in Detroit, Tie Domi in New York, and Basil McRae in Tampa Bay being the only three I can recall us finding. Brent claimed Detroit, Mike took New York, and I took Tampa Bay. It didn't matter that Detroit and New York were both stacked and Tampa Bay was like, a 2/10 level team, because I sucked at video games and wasn't going to win anyway. I just wanted a team with a good fighter, so even if I lost every game, I could still win something.

Anyway, we all got hooked, bought sticks for road hockey, bought hats and sweaters of our teams (although Mike switched to the Leafs), and I started looking forward to the NHL's 1993-1994 season. I picked up a magazine with the previous season's stats, opened a notebook, and recorded my predictions for each player. Brian Bradley had 42 goals last year, so he should be good for 50 this year. John Tucker had 17, so let's say 25. I went through the roster, and predicted that each player would increase his offensive output by 20-50%, which was a disaster, since 1992-1993 was an offensive high water mark for the NHL, before the drudgery of the oncoming trap era. Only one player achieved the goal total I set out, that being Danton Cole, who jumped from 12 goals in '92-'93 to 20 in '93-'94.

Needless to say, I was a poor prognosticator.

But making guesses about other people's achievements is fun, so I'm going to do it again right here. These are my predictions for the 2021-2022 Lightning season.

Nikita Kucherov: Kuch will return to his humorless, taciturn ways, eschewing the shirtless, beer-fueled and profanity-laden press conferences, while scoring at a league leading level. After his performances in the last few post-seasons, it's fair to assume he'll be able to return to his regular season form of 2018-2019, when he led the NHL in scoring. He'll finish in the top three for points, and only gets shirtless and silly again if the Bolts win the Cup again.

Steven Stamkos: He's only 31 years old today, but it feels like he's played for the Lightning forever. He's not the scoring threat he once was, and he'll likely spend a good deal of time on the third line, but he'll still easily hit the mid-thirties in goals with all his power play goals. Much respect, captain.

Anthony Cirelli: Gonna give Tony the ol' Danton Cole treatment and predict he'll get his first 20 goal season in the NHL. He hit 19 back in 2018-2019, and with a full season to play, a 20 dollar bill should be easy. Sixty points, too. Get out there and be great, bro.

Brayden Point: He'll be dashing this season-- both fast on the ice and a handsome devil too. A point-a-game should be the minimum for Big BP; he's a big-time machine. Will he one day have a hundred point NHL season? Yes. This year.

Victor Hedman: I think Heddy will also get his first 20 goal season. Why not? There's nothing this man can't do.  

Mikhail Sergachev: He wants to be the best defenseman in the League, and I respect that confidence. He'll hit 40 points this year.

Andrei Vasilevskiy: He'll get 40 wins or more.

Brian Elliott: He'll get maybe 10 wins? 

Jon Cooper: Can you believe this guy has never won coach of the year? I guess it's because his team is always so stacked with talent, and the award usually goes to some geek that wrings a great total out of a team that was expected to be a disaster, but sooner or later Coop will get the "career achievement" Jack Adams Award. Will it be this year? Yes, This year. 

As for everyone else, just take their points per game average from last season, average it over 82 games, and add 20%. I'm in a good mood tonight. I saw a rainbow after walking in the rain. I'm optimistic.

Game #1 Recap: Penguins 6 at Lightning 2

 Phil Esposito, the fiery hero on the ice,
was never one to play his cards close to his vest.

Now, generations removed from playing the game himself,
he sits in the media box at Amelie Arena,
providing color commentary on Tampa Bay Lightning games,
watching the players of the franchise he founded
as they bumble and stumble,
botch passes,
lose face-offs,
and ice the puck again and again.

And just like during his days as a center for the Blackhawks, Bruins, or Rangers,
Espo can't hide his emotions.

His commentary on the game,
as the Bolts,
after watching the banner of their 2021 Stanley Cup Championship
being raised to the ceiling in a pregame ceremony,
clatter their way around the ice en route to a 6-2 loss,
is decidedly that of a sad old uncle,
shaking his head and repeating
"what a shame, what a shame,"
unable and uninterested in hiding the disappointment in his voice.

Lightning Coach Jon Cooper,
his freshly-inked and well-earned three-year contract extension in his pocket,
watches his charges chase the Penguins around the ice, 
unable to find their legs or form,

while the Pens, missing core players like
Sidney Crosby, Gino Malkin, Jake Guentzel, and more,
beat them with hustle and structure.

Six minutes remaining,
Lightning down three-zip
(coulda been a lot worse if not for Andrei Vasilevskiy in the home net),
and Coop says let's go for it:
he yanks the Big Cat for the extra attacker,

and the Bolts get one from Anthony Cirelli!

followed by a Pens empty netter

then the Bolts get one from Killorn! They're clawing their way back

followed by a Pens empty netter,

followed by a third Pens empty netter.

6-2 Pens is your final,
the last five goals of the game coming with Vasy on the bench.
A clumsy, uninspired performance to open their championship defense,
accurately summed up by Captain Stamkos:

"A dud."

The Lightning return to action on Thursday in Detroit.